US political hurdles and Iranian distrust test deal, experts debate

As part of the years‑long US sanctions on Iran, billions of dollars of its assets are held overseas, with estimates putting the total at more than $100bn. Most of the funds are in countries that have purchased Iranian oil, including Iraq, China, Japan, India, South Korea and Luxembourg. Iran wants the assets released under its new agreement with Washington.
In a discussion on Al Jazeera, Mostafa Khoshcheshm, a professor at the University of Applied Sciences in Tehran, said Iran will not give up its nuclear enrichment programme and will only commit to not pursuing a military nuclear programme. He argued that the MoU imposes obligations almost entirely on the US, not Iran, and that the frozen assets are actually closer to $24bn, as Iran has already bypassed sanctions to release three‑quarters of its assets. He said Iranians have mixed feelings – proud of having imposed a "defeat" on the US, but distrustful after the US withdrawal from the JCPOA.
Paul Musgrave, Associate Professor of Government at Georgetown University in Qatar, said Iran will be looking to the US and other countries for legal and political assurances. He noted that Congress must review any nuclear deal, and the mood on Capitol Hill is "grim and angry", especially among Republicans. He said President Trump may have to bear the political cost to release the funds. On regional impact, Musgrave said the war has upset fundamental assumptions about US presence and the reliability of the Strait of Hormuz. He noted infrastructure projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reducing the strait's importance, while a post‑sanctions Iran could earn up to $60bn a year from oil sales.

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